Medieval Period Global Warming Graphic

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The global temperature is represented by the green solid line, whereas the temperature of the Oscillation of the El Niño South Pacific Oscillation (ENSO) is represented by the red solid line. The variation in the Tropospheric concentration of CO2 is represented by the dashed brown line. The maximums and minimums in the solar activity are represented by the dashed blue line; whereas the type-X solar brilliances are represented by the orange circles. It is clear that El Niño influences in the global tropospheric temperature and not in the inverse way because the maximum variations in the temperature of ENSO happen months or years before the variations in the tropospheric temperature. The atmospheric CO2 does not seem to be related with ENSO variations; whereas the solar activity seems to have a direct influence.

EL NIÑO AND LA NIÑA

The surface waters of the Pacific Ocean normally are pushed towards the West by the prevailing winds called Tradewinds. When that pushing is reversed, El Niño appears and reheats the Eastern part of the ocean and provokes climatologic turbulences. Those turbulences are not permanent because after a few years La Niña appears. Normally, the Equatorial zone of the Pacific Ocean is put under the action of Tradewinds. The water of the surface goes slowly from South America to Southeast Asia. The mass of water overheats and it elevates slowly by thermal expansion. The evaporation causes the formation of clouds that are pushed to the West by the tradewinds. The warm and wet air ascends near Asia, while the cold and relatively dry air descends near the coasts of South America. This is known like Walker’s Cell, which conditions the climate of the whole Pacific Ocean. The monsoon appears in Asia and an anticyclone settles above the South American coasts.

Some years, by reasons not well understood, the tradewinds are weaker and the warm surface waters are pushed by the West winds towards the center and the East of the Pacific Ocean where it evaporates. Then the Walker’s Cell and the Secondary Convective Cells (SCC) distributed over the equator are disturbed. A low pressure system appears over the East Pacific and it is maintained while the Southeast of Asia suffers the effects of a powerful anticyclone that deprives the region from the monsoonal rains. That’s the El Niño or South Pacific Anomaly.

La Niña is the opposite anomaly. The strong pushing of the tradewinds causes heavy rains over Asia and cools the waters of the Eastern Pacific Ocean.

As I wrote in the previous paragraphs, the causes of El Niño and La Niña are not well understood, but there is strong evidence that the Solar Flares have something to do on the patterns of both phenomena. For example, the 87 X-type flares that preceded to El Niño in 1998. This year the solar activity was low, and El Niño was weaker than other years.

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2006 HAS BEEN THE COLDEST YEAR OF THE DECADE IN THE WORLD (See Graph here)

Many people have been confused because they have read from NOAA's page that 2006 has been the warmest year of the decade. Nevertheless, when going through the data provided by the own NOAA, we find that in fact 2006 have been the coldest year of the decade. There is not discrepancy between both reports from NOAA, given that, when talking about the warmest year, NOAA refers only to some states of the United States (Texas and New Mexico) and Southeastern Asia. On the other hand, the data for a local warmer year come from ground weather stations, that is to say, stations located within the cities or “heat islands”, whereas the data that indicate that 2006 has been a global (anywhere in the world) colder year were taken at 1000 meters above sea level, far from “heat islands”.

Comparing both sources of data to see its trustworthiness, the data obtained at 1000 meters above sea level are more reliable than the obtained on ground. It is worth to add that the data from globes agree with the data provided by satellites, which are the most precise figures, while the data from ground stations does not match with reality.

THE GRAPHS PUBLISHED IN THE WHOLE BIOCAB'S WEBSITE ARE AUTHENTIC ACCORDING TO THE REFERENCE SOURCES, WHICH CAN BE COLLATED TO VERIFY THEIR EXACTITUDE AND VERACITY.

THESE GRAPHS ARE SUBJECT TO THE INTERNATIONAL LAWS OF COPYRIGHT AND INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY AND THEY CANNOT BE FRAMED NOR PASTED WITHOUT AN EXPRESSED AUTHORIZATION OF BIOCAB; HOWEVER, THEY CAN BE USED FREELY FOR ACADEMIC AIMS, FOR DISSERTATION, INVESTIGATION AND PUBLIC DEBATES, AS LONG AS YOU ASK IN WRITING FOR PERMISSION TO BIOLOGY CABINET AND TO INDEPENDENT AUTHORS, AND ALWAYS WHEN YOU MENTION THE SOURCE FROM WHERE THE INFORMATION WAS TAKEN. BIOLOGY CABINET WILL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MISGUIDED OR CRIMINAL UTILIZATION OF THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS PAGE AND IN THE WHOLE BIOLOGY CABINET’S WEBSITE AND BIOLOGY CABINET WILL ACT LEGALLY WITH RIGOR AGAINST THE PLAGIARISTS OF ANY MATERIAL CONTAINED IN HTTP://BIOCAB.ORG.

NASIF NAHLE

OWNER

COMPARATIVE GRAPHIC ON GLOBAL WARMING

Biology Cabinet Organization ® 1997.

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The Graphics clearly shows that there is not a link between the Global Warming and the increase of Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere.

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Evidently, the Graphs show that there is not relation between the trend of the tropospheric temperature (red line) and the increase of Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere (green line); instead, we can see a relation of Solar Activity (purple line) with Global Warming (red line). In 1998, the anomaly in the tropospheric temperature correlates with 87 X-solar flares. August 2005 was a normal month, but September was not because the Earth received the energy 17 X-Solar Flares, when the sunspots activity was at its minimum. Actually, the trend in the Solar Activity has increased by a decadal rate of 0.05 W/m^2, totalizing 0.125 W/m^2 by the last two and a half decades. The discovery of NASA coincides with the trend in the variability of the Global Tropospheric Temperature towards the end of the past two and a half decades (being of 0.123° C). Generally speaking, there is more incoming radiation emitted by the Sun. Without a doubt, the modern Global Warming is not a human-made event, but a natural and cyclical phenomenon. The two gray dashed lines show the real coincidence between the trends of both variables. (See graphs at NASA.GOV and here, and the graphs about Intergalactic Cosmic Rays in BIOCAB's Website).

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This Graph shows that there have been many periods warmer than the present warm period. Actually, our Global Warming is benign compared with prehistoric warming eras. I want you to pay attention on the Ordovician period. During this period, the atmospheric CO2 reached 2240 ppmV (eight times higher than at present); nevertheless, the mean temperature diminished considerably to the extent of causing an Ice Age. We can see also that the Triassic Period was warmer than the Holocene (present Epoch); however, the CO2 concentration was lower than at present. Evidently, there are other factors more efficient than CO2 for warming the Earth. (To verify data on Paleocene CO2: http://www.sciencemag.org). We have to take into account the addition of Methane during the Paleocene, which was about 1500 Gigatons. (Note of the Author: The plot of the atmospheric Carbon Dioxide concentration was corrected for the Ordivician Period on 7 July 2008).

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The quantification of the thickness of the Antarctic ice layer made by the Altimeter Radar Satellite indicates that the depth of the Eastern Antarctic Ice Shield has been growing by almost 48 billion metric tons per year since 1992. The increase of the mass of ice is associated with an intensification of the snowfalls. The increase is high enough as to stop the rise of the sea level by more than 0.14 mm per year. The sea level has not increased a single centimeter in the last 150 years; that’s another lie from the IPCC of UN.

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Comparison between the change in the global temperature (red line), the Carbon Dioxide Concentration (blue line), and the sample tree ring (green line) from 800 AD to 2005 (AD). As you can see, what took only 150 years during the Medieval Period of Global Warming has taken 200 years in our Industrial Era. This means that the current Global Warming is rising SLOWER than during the Medieval Age. Besides, our Global Warming is LOWER than that of the Medieval Period. A further characteristic is that the warmest phase in the Medieval Period lasted about 190 years, whereas the warmest period of the contemporary Global Warming lasted merely 3 years (from 1997 to 1998), with its highest point in 1998. This evidence demonstrates that the Global Warming is a cyclic natural phenomenon. THE GRAPHS PUBLISHED IN BIOCAB'S WEBSITE ARE AUTHENTIC, ACCORDING TO THE REFERENCED SOURCES, WHICH CAN BE COLLATED TO VERIFY THEIR EXACTITUDE AND VERACITY. WE HAVE NOT MODIFIED DATA NEITHER HAVE FLAWED THE DATA.

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Is there an association between the tropospheric ΔT and the Intensity of the Intergalactic Cosmic Ray (IICR)? The superposition of the graph on the oscillations in the Tropospheric temperature to compare it with the graph on the Intensity of Cosmic Rays (IICR) that collide with the solar wind, in the Termination Shock zone of the Solar System, seems to demonstrate a direct correlation between the variations of the tropospheric temperature and the IICR. In addition, it could be that the anomaly of the ICR is causing the anomalies observed in the radiating activity of the Sun. FOR A DEEPER REVIEW ON THIS SUBJECT, READ OUR ARTICLE ON THE CORRELATION OF ICR WITH THE TERRESTRIAL GLOBAL WARMING.

Climate is not the same as weather. The climate is a set of averaged quantities complemented with high moment statistics that take account variance, covariance, correlation, etc., which describes a structure and behavior of the atmosphere, the hydrosphere, the cryosphere and the biosphere on a period of time. On the other hand, weather is the set of meteorological conditions that prevail in a given period of time and a determined place, for example, temperature, relative humidity, dew point, atmospheric pressure, rainfall, snowfall, etc.

When we talk about climate change we are referring to the changes occurred on the averaged values that characterize a region given during a period of time; for example, A. M. rain, temperature: 80°F, winds: 3 mph SE, humidity: 38%, dew point: 52°F, etc.

Climate always change and there are not fixed values for any region of the world. Sometimes we talk about standard values for simple convenience and to recognize the factor or factors that could modify the structure of an ecosystem in a given moment, for example, when we want to know the factors that could modify the migratory pattern of Monarch butterflies.

Some people very interested on obtaining political or economic gains distort the scientific concepts making their audience thinks that the climate has always been fixed and that the changes that we observe at this moment are anomalous. Nevertheless, we only need to read any good book on paleontology to discover that the climate has never been stable or balanced. For example, the Medieval Period had a period of global warming when the atmospheric temperatures rose far higher than at the present time. Another case of a significant climate change has been spotted in the Western seaside of Canada, where 7000 years ago the temperature was so benign that a tempered forest prospered there. The climate in that region would have changed so much that the upper layer of the ground was frozen and the intense cold devastated the whole forest. (Read here the related article)

Author: Nasif Nahle

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BIBLIOGRAPHY

Lean, J. 2004. Solar Irradiance Reconstruction. IGBP PAGES/World Data Center for Paleoclimatology Data Contribution Series # 2004-035. NOAA/NGDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder CO, USA.

Loehle, C. 2007. A 2000-Year Global Temperature Reconstruction Based on Non-treering Proxies. Energy & Environment 18(7-8): 1049-1058.

Eric Rignot and Robert H. Thomas. Mass Balance of Polar Ice Sheets. Science, Vol. 297, Issue 5586, 1502-1506, 30 August 2002.

Curt H. Davis, Yonghong Li, Joseph R. McConnell, Markus M. Frey, Edward Hanna. Snowfall-Driven Growth in East Antarctic Ice Sheet Mitigates Recent Sea-Level Rise. Science, Vol. 308, Issue 5730, 1898-1901, 24 June 2005.

Ola M. Johannessen, Kirill Khvorostovsky, Martin W. Miles, Leonid P. Bobylev. Recent Ice-Sheet Growth in the Interior of Greenland. Published online: October 20 2005; 10.1126/Science.1115356. Science Express Reports: www.sciencexpress.org / 20 October 2005 / Page 5/ 10.1126/science.1115356

Sea Ice Decline Intensifies. National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), a part of the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado, Boulder; NASA; and the University of Washington. NSIDC. 28 September, 2005.

Thomas L. Delworth, Thomas R. Knutson. Simulation of Early 20th Century Global Warming. Science, Vol. 287, Issue 5461, 2246-2250, 24 March 2000.

R. B. Alley et al. Abrupt Climate Change. Science, Vol. 299, Issue 5615, 2005-2010, 28 March 2003.

Santo Bains, Richard M. Corfield, Richard D. Norris. Mechanisms of Climate Warming at the End of the Paleocene. Science. Vol. 285. Issue 5428, pp. 724 - 727; 30 July 1999.

Richard A. Kerr. CLIMATE CHANGE: A Few Good Climate Shifters. Science, Vol. 306, Issue 5696, 599-601, 22 October 2004.

Thomas R. Karl, Kevin E. Trenberth. Modern Global Climate Change. Science, Vol. 302, Issue 5651, 1719-1723, 5 December 2003.

Lean J., Bear J., Bradley R. Reconstruction of Solar Irradiance since 1610 - Implications for Climate – Change. Geophysical Research Letters 22 (23). Pp. 3195-3198, December 1st., 1995.

Drew T. Shindell et al. Solar Forcing of Regional Climate Change During the Maunder Minimum. Science, Vol. 294, Issue 5549, 2149-2152, 7 December 2001.

Seong-Joong Kim, Thomas J. Crowley, Achim Stössel. Local Orbital Forcing of Antarctic Climate Change during the Last Interglacial. Science, Vol. 280, Issue 5364, 728-730, May 1st. 1998.

Gerald E. Marsh. A Global Warming Primer. National Policy Analysis, No. 361, September 2001. The National Center for Public Policy Research.

M. L. Khandekar, T. S. Murty, P. Chittibabu. The Global Warming Debate: A Review of the State of Science. Pure Applied geophysics, Vol. 162, 1557–1586. 2005.

Hansen, J., Sato, M., Lacis, A., and Ruedy, R. The Missing Climate Forcing. Phil Trans. R. Soc. London. 352, 231–240. 1997.

Reed P. Scherer, Ala Aldahan, Slawek Tulaczyk, Göran Possnert, Hermann Engelhardt, Barclay Kamb. Pleistocene Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Science, Vol. 281, Issue 5373, 82-85, 3 July 1998.

Sharon L. Kanfoush, David A. Hodell, Christopher D. Charles, Thomas P. Guilderson, P. Graham Mortyn, Ulysses S. Ninnemann. Millennial-Scale Instability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet During the Last Glaciation. Science, Vol. 288, Issue 5472, 1815-1819, 9 June 2000.

NASA’S SITE:

Marshes Tell Story of Medieval Drought, Little Ice Age, and European Settlers near New York City. Krishna Ramanujan- Goddard Space Flight Center. Published May 18, 2005. Last seen October 05, 2005.

http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/lookingatearth/medieval_marsh.html

Who's Afraid of a Solar Flare? October 7, 2005. NASA’s site.

Solar Minimum Explodes. Solar minimum is looking strangely like Solar Max. September 15, 2005. NASA’s site.

The Biggest Explosions in the Solar System. February 6, 2002. NASA’s site.

Solar Event Reports -last 60 days. NOAA’s site:

http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/SOLAR/ftpsolarirradiance.html#composite

Number of Solar Flares in 1997: http://www2.ips.gov.au/Educational/2/4/4

Number of Solar Flares in 1998: http://www2.ips.gov.au/Educational/2/4/5

NASA STUDY FINDS INCREASING SOLAR TREND THAT CAN CHANGE CLIMATE. March 20, 2003 - (date of web publication). Link: http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/0313irradiance.html

Schmidt/Miller, NASA GISS/Universidad de Columbia, NYAS, Nueva York, NY. 2004

Climate Change on Mars:

http://mars.jpl.nasa.gov/mgs/newsroom/20050920a.html

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On this graph I have made a comparison between two authors, Yang and Möeberg. It is clear from the graph that the warming period during the Medieval Age was warmer than the current global warming. THE GRAPHS PUBLISHED IN BIOCAB'S WEBSITE ARE AUTHENTIC, ACCORDING TO THE REFERENCED SOURCES, WHICH CAN BE COLLATED TO VERIFY THEIR EXACTITUDE AND VERACITY. WE HAVE NOT MODIFIED DATA NEITHER HAVE FLAWED THE DATA.

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On this graph I have made a comparison between the intensity of Solar Irradiance (Lean et al. 2001) and the variability of temperature (Loehle. 2007). The plot of the Intensity of Solar Irradiance (gray line) is shown from 1610 AD to 2000 AD because we lack of data before 1610. The relation between the Solar Irradiance (gray line) and the variability of temperature (red line) is almost identical. THE GRAPHS PUBLISHED IN BIOCAB'S WEBSITE ARE AUTHENTIC, ACCORDING TO THE REFERENCED SOURCES, WHICH CAN BE COLLATED TO VERIFY THEIR EXACTITUDE AND VERACITY. WE HAVE NOT MODIFIED DATA NEITHER HAVE FLAWED THE DATA.

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