Global Warmings and Coolings Since Medieval Age

LEFT CLICK ON THE GRAPH FOR AN OPTIMIZED IMAGE.

EXPLANATION OF THE GRAPH:

The data obtained from the studies of Khandekar, Kreutz, NASA and NOAA reveal that the global tropospheric temperature is dropping again, whereas the CO2 level has been more or less steady from 2001.

The linear graph shows a global warming from approximately 800 AD to 1100 AD. From 1100 until 1998, the fluctuations in the world-wide tropospheric temperatures continued within the normal patterns.

There was a period of global warming from 1910 to 1940 comparable to the recovery of the Little Ice Age that occurred from 1500 to 1550.

From November 1940 to February 1977, the global tropospheric temperature underwent a cooling. In January 1967 snow covered nearly the whole Northern Hemisphere.

There was a period of global warming from 1977 to 2005, a bit lower than the Global Warming prior to the Little Ice Age (from 800 to 1100).

This year (2006), the Tropospheric Temperature goes back to a cooling similiar to 1960. The year 2006 has been one of the coldest years since 1997.

Our Global Warming has lasted less than that of the Medieval Age; in addition, the positive fluctuations did not even reach the highest levels that occurred during the Medieval Age.

Please, take the necessary safety precautions for this winter season. Save water and fuels, shelter yourself and take care if you ignite gas heaters, coal heaters, or wood-burning stoves. If you use organic fuels ( i.e., wood, pellets, etc.) for home heating, remember to maintain proper ventilation with outdoor air.

NEVER LEAVE IGNITED FLAMES UNATTENDED WHEN YOU GO TO SLEEP. NEVER LEAVE YOUR HOUSE WITH HEATERS IGNITED!

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TWO SIGNIFICANT LETTERS FROM A COLLEAGUE:

The following are two letters sent by my colleague Dr. Colin Leakey, PhD -another Biologist with broad experience from Lincoln, UK- to the British newspaper The Guardian. Dr. Colin Leakey does not work for Biology Cabinet and the letters were sent to the editor of The Guardian, but have yet to be published. Dr. Leakey has granted his permission for us to publish both letters in our website. The texts are unedited and placed between brackets.

[Subject: No climate change conspiracy. Corbyn 10 Nov and today 13th Eric Wolff.

Date: Mon, 13 Nov 2006

Eric Wolff discusses factors taken into account in models. Of course such models are set up to "explain" what is empirically observed so they do so! The question is what factors of possible substantial importance are not included in the models because the data is too scant or difficult to muster. Wolff at last states among other good observations that "CO2 has increased in response to temperature change in the past" There are plenty of ways to see how temperature change could "force" CO2 as well as vice versa but its current very high and unprecedented level is indeed very worrying. The (largely photosynthetic)"sinks" may have collapsed as well as the sources increased. I don't believe there is any "conspiracy" merely a great reluctance to suppose that current models may perhaps be inadequate and too limited in scope. It is overall heat balance and not just solar radiation balance that has to be at issue. What of the heat output from nuclear power and the possible great heat outpouring from thin mantle over separating tectonic plates, especially mid-ocean ones and between Antarctica and South America? Oceanographers and students of hurricanes know that there are areas of sometimes significantly raised mid-ocean surface temperatures in the Pacific and Atlantic and active underwater volcanism between Antarctica and South America. Who is modeling these phenomena? These may affect current water as well as air flows as well as adding heat even if the temperature changes seem undramatic. Colin Leakey]

[Subject: A head of steam for well-founded alternative view on climate change.

Date: Sat, 25 Nov 2006

Dear Nigel Willmott in your arms you hold the key to preventing to continued perpetration of nonsense as great as the Non-Weapons of Mass Destruction concerning which you published my exposure at a very early date i.e. before we went to war! The "carbon" story has run and run and run with a few powerful protagonists built on an erroneous and inadequate theoretical base. The simple matter to convince you and Jo Public is the Missing Mediaeval Warm period whose absence (from Michael Mann's original hockey stick) rubbishes the now much written of Hockey Stick purporting to "prove" the carbon story. Its long handle has a huge bump in it! You will know that Viscount Monckton has dipped his hand in the pool or wisdom and been castigated in your (our) newspaper by a very well-known and often well respected journalist. That is very wrong and unjust too. Piers Corbyn who has also been treated with disrespect happens to be a first class Physicist (from Imperial College) and is on course to produce a rather comprehensive account of climate as it relates to the instability of irregular solar output. He has very kindly provided me with all the images from his recent presentations which I can commend as providing a strong base for informed opinion. That in turn has been made possible by the huge amount of work done by space scientists and the data that they can gain from satellites and the need to take care of "weather" in space. I believe Piers is already known to you. I have quite recently not only written to you (unpublished as yet) but been in communication with both Piers and Lord Monckton and "scientist" in New Mexico who is like me a biologist by trade but who spotted the missing "mediaeval warm period" and put out about it in his blog site some time ago. If you would care to review our several letters I shall with other permission forward them to you and hope you will discuss them seriously with others in The Guardian team. Colin Leakey.]

As you can see, the honest scientists from the world do not agree with the lies on Global Warming. Dr. Leakey is a very respectable biologist, and you can review his site at http://www.colinleakey.com

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LEFT CLICK ON THE GRAPH FOR AN OPTIMIZED IMAGE.

INTERPRETATION OF THE GRAPH:

This comparative graph on the effects of Solar Irradiance (SI) upon Tropospheric Temperature (TT) versus Carbon Dioxide (CO2) upon TT clearly demonstrates that the observed Δ TT depends almost exclusively on SI, instead of on the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere.

The red shaded area in the graph indicates the deviation of the TT observed in nature with respect to the expected temperatures from the algorithm applied by the IPCC that was adopted for delineating the Kyoto Protocol (:: Δ TT - :: Δ [CO2]). The discrepancy between the real Δ TT is 1.124, which is a very high uncertainty that allows us to reject the hypothesis about the anthropogenic cause of the increase in the atmospheric CO2 and the Global Warming.

The violet shaded area represents the deviation of the TT observed in nature with respect to the expected temperatures starting off from the algorithm that implies the law of Stefan-Boltzmann and the deviation of the SI (TTf :: TTi - SIf :: SIi) obtained from the investigation of Judith Lean and colleagues and the team of NOAA/NGDC. The discrepancy between Δ TT observed in nature vs. the Δ TT expected by applying the Law of Stefan-Boltzmann for Δ RS is 0.08, which is into the acceptable parameters of uncertainty. From this, we infer that so the increase in the concentration of gases with a high Specific Heat (CO2, Methane, steam, etc.) as the past and the current Global Warming are generated by the positive fluctuations in SI, the precession of the equinoxes and, probably by the small alteration that the terrestrial axis underwent as a result of the December 28, 2006 Indonesian Tsunami (a fluctuation of ca. 0.02").

Something extremely important to note, as evidenced by this graph, is that the CO2 concentration began to increase during the Maunder Minimum, caused perhaps by the great amount of atmospheric dust that obstructed the solar light before reaching the photosynthetic systems with an adequate intensity or a specific wavelength for the process. When the increase of CO2 started, there were neither automobiles nor human industries, and the world human population was very small (about 100 million persons in the world).

Nasif Nahle

Director

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LEFT CLICK ON THE GRAPH FOR AN OPTIMIZED IMAGE.

In this graph of Δ Solar Irradiance (Δ SI) means -obtained by Judith Lean and colleagues, and the team of NOAA/NGDC-, the observed Δ TT and the Δ CO2 atmospheric concentration demonstrates that the deviation (orange shaded area) of the observed (actual) Δ TT from the Δ TT integrated with the concentration of CO2 is negative and its amplitude is too high as to be considered as the cause of the real warming.

On the other hand, the deviation (sky-blue shaded area) of the observed (actual) Δ TT from the Δ TT integrated with the Δ SI s within accepted deviations due to changes in emissivity-absorption of the air by water vapor, dust, reflecting surfaces, and other mitigating agents.

The Δ TT, the Δ [CO2] and the Δ SI values have been obtained from observations of nature and Physics experimentation. So I am confident in saying that current Global Warming is a natural phenomena, not provoked by humans, but by cyclic fluctuations of Solar Irradiance, input of Cosmic Rays, volcanism, winds, oscillations in the equatorial precession, etc.

Nasif Nahle

Director

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WILL 2007 BE WARMER THAN 2006?

At the beginning of the last year, Democratic candidate for Idaho's 2nd US Congressional District Jim Hansen predicted 2006 to be warmer thatn 2005. He was wrong. 2006 was the coldest year in the last five years. If you analyze the note from the newspapers you will find that the prognosis was also endorsed by this same person; Jim Hansen. But this is not the significant issue. Simply, we cannot systematically predict that 2007 will be hotter than 2006.

We can advance that 2007 COULD BE a warmer year than 2006 by the influence of El Niño because, according to our observations, the years with El Niño have been warmer than the years without the natural El Niño Oceanic Oscillation (ENSO). The mainstream media perpetuates the notion that everything follows the "Global Warming from Greenhouse Gases produced by human activities" premise. However, this is tendentious and false information, given that the phenomenon of El Niño is not associated with "Global Warming" or "Climate Change".

Perhaps you are already aware that NASA predicted a more powerful solar period than the previous periods of observed Solar Activity (read the note here: http://science.nasa.gov). This makes the "prediction" of Jim Hansen and his associates to be a truculent and untrustworthy note, because it is established fact that the Sun is the source of energy for the whole Solar System.

Judith Lean compiled a reconstruction of the Intensity of the Solar Radiation ffor NOAA. She found that for the last 400 years the Intensity has been increasing considerably (0.202%). The change found by Judith Lean was 3.27 W/square meter. From the experimental data, the terrestrial tropospheric temperature increases 0.175 C by each W/square meter emitted by the Sun, in combination with the Interstellar Medium, which would produce a total a change of 0.61 C, a variation that coincides with the change observed in the atmospheric temperature (0.62 C) in the last 400 years.

Live unafraid. There is no doubt that we must end pollution, deforestation, and other environmental carelessness; but we must not resort to lies nor distort science to terrify the people.

M. E. Velazquez

Representatives

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ABOUT THE GRAPHS AND DATA

The climate models are only a pale reflection of reality, that is to say, speculation made with a computer. As a biologist I deal only with observable and verifiable natural phenomena, considering only those facts that anyone can confirm observationally or empirically. No one can predict a natural phenomenon without considering all of the variables that determine that phenomenon. There are always variables in natural phenomena that are unknown to us. Because of this, no one is able to model nature as if it were reality. This doesn't mean that phenomenon is without subjacent causes. Rather, it is simply that we do not know the combined microstates that give rise to that phenomenon.

Modelers can change the value of any variable at will. For that reason, they commonly regard CO2 density in their models as a black body, when empirically CO2 concentration is no more than a gray body; comparatively not very efficient at retaining heat.

It has been empirically demonstrated that water is much more efficient at retaining heat because it absorbs and dissipates heat slowly. The gases CO2 and methane absorb and dissipate heat quickly. You can consult any book on Heat Transfer or Elemental Physics to verify this fact.

For this the reason, I disregard the lie that points to CO2 and other "greenhouse" gases as the starting point of "global warming". The semantics of the concept "global warming" is pseudo-scientific because it is not a "warming", but a fluctuation in the temperature of the Earth's atmosphere.

Fluctuations in Earth’s temperature have always occurred, ever since the planet was formed. In the not too ancient past (300,000 to 50,000 years ago), the fluctuations that happened in the temperature of the planet were on the order of 10 °C; At this time, the fluctuation has not risen beyond 0.62 °C, and this is if we include the fluctuation in the Medieval Age, because in the last 200 years the fluctuation has not been higher than 0.52 °C. When one mentions it, the fact of the enormous fluctuations of the atmospheric temperatures in past ages infuriates those that wish to maintain the world in terror, because this is documented and veridical data that contradicts their truculent models that give incongruous results against the reality of nature.

I present four models here of the possible changes in the atmospheric temperature that are more congruent with reality than those from IPCC and the UN. The creators of the program to obtain hypothetical models are Dr. David Archer and Jeremy Archer, of the University of Chicago. These two professionals are serious and honest scientists whose work has not been influenced by politics. You can verify their work and confirm that they adjusted their program as far as they could to obtain results congruent with reality. There could be a few exaggerations in some data introduced to the program because of non-linear dynamic variables that influence real phenomena, but these hypothetical models can then be confronted with the results obtained by experimentation and applying the Laws of Thermodynamics.

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BIBLIOGRAPHY AND EXTERNAL RESOURCES

Highly Recommended External Sources in Internet:

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http://mars.jpl.nasa.gov/odyssey/newsroom/pressreleases/20031208a.html

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