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Nahle, Nasif. (2003). Overpopulation. Published on 10 November 2003 by Biology Cabinet Organization. http://biocab.org/Overpopulation.html. Last visit on (day) (month) (year).

OVERPOPULATION

Overpopulation is a term that refers to a condition by which the population density enlarges to a limit that provokes the environmental deterioration, a remarkable decline in the quality of life, or a population collapse.

The term population density denotes the number of inhabitants dwelling in a specific area, for example: 100 inhabitants per square Kilometer.

The impact of human populations on the environment has been severe. Some animal species have been extinguished or forced to live in inhospitable regions by the advance of urban areas; pollution is a problem that is increasing gradually because we are using more cars. Emerging countries industrialization is not paying attention to environmental issues because of the feeding demands of their ever-growing populations.

The human overpopulation has been credited to diverse factors, as the increment in life-span, the absence of natural enemies, the improvement in the quality of life, and the accessibility to get better goods.

Every year, more than 81 million people add the world-wide population. Every 10 years almost one billion inhabitants are added to the world’s population.

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CURRENT EFFECTS OF OVERPOPULATION

Due to the opening out of human settings, 16 million hectares of forest are chopped down each year.

The accelerated growth of the human populations has propitiated the destruction of natural habitats of many species. People are invading the habitats of those species, replacing them to inhospitable places and condemning the native species to the extinction.

The speed of extinction of plants and animals attributable to human activities is 10,000 times faster than the natural quotient.

About 5 million people die every year from illnesses associated to organic wastes.

Too dense human communities produce tons of solid wastes (organic and inorganic waste) daily, consume large quantities of energy and emit more pollutants to the environment.

Water necessities will increase to 20% by 2025. Approximately, one half of wetlands around the world have been lost since 1900.

In USA, consumption of materials (wood, metals, synthetics, etc.) has grown 18-fold since 1900.

The Ozone layer has been gradually ruined by the effect of the CFCs. The concentration of CFCs has been increased as the human population has grown, and the thickness of the Ozone layer has been lesser to the extent that a hole in the layer has been formed. Scientists have found that there are other emissions derived from human activities, which have contributed to the depletion of the ozone layer.

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TRENDS OF POPULATION GROWTH

World Population (update:July 2006) = 6,525,170,264 humans

The rate of population growth has been receding since 1963. The rate of global growth before the 1960s was near to 2.4 percent, at present the rate has diminished to 1.27 percent.

If you observe the current tendency, you could assume that all works well, but actually, it does not. Actually this global picture has been obtained taking into account mainly European countries, as Germany and Holland, which hold a negative rate. On the other hand, some countries maintain rates of growth over 4 percent each year.

For example, the Ethiopia's current population of 60 million inhabitants is projected to near 170 million by 2050.

By 2050, India will displace to China from its first place in growth rate, with an increment of 550 million additional inhabitants to its present population of more than one billion.

Pakistan almost will triple its population by 2050, from 142 to 350 million. If the world population continues growing at an average of three children by couple, the global population for 2050 will be of 10.5 billion inhabitants, from whom 7.7 billion will suffer for extreme poverty, lack of fresh water, hunger, illnesses, etc.

In some cases, the five countries at the first level of population growth (China, India, USA, Indonesia and Brazil) will continue in their current rank because the rate of mortality in poor countries exceeds the rate of births. If this tendency upturns, then those countries will have population growths of around five percent by year.

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Demographic Facts

BRAZIL

Population in 2006 (x 1000)  .......................... 188,078.32
Annual population growth rate (%) ......................... 1.22
Population in year 2015 (x 1000) ................... 201,393
Total fertility rate (/woman) .................................... 2.15
Sex ratio (/100 females)......................................... 98
Life expectancy at birth (years)
Age distribution (%) Males..................................... 64.7
Ages 0-14............................................................... 28.8
Females ................................................................ 72.6
Youth (15-24) ......................................................... 19.9
Both sexes............................................................. 68.3
Ages 60+................................................................   7.8
GNP per capita (U.S. dollars, 1998) .................... 4630

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MEXICO

Population in 2006 (X 1000) ...................................... 107,449.53
Annual population growth rate (%) .................................... 1.49
Population in year 2015 (X 1000) .............................. 119,175
Total fertility rate (/woman)................................................ 2.49
Sex ratio (/100 females).................................................... 98
Life expectancy at birth (years)
Age distribution (%) Males..................................................70.4
Ages 0-14........................................................................... 33.1
Females ........................................................................... 76.4
Youth (15-24) ..................................................................... 20.2
Both sexes......................................................................... 73.0
Ages 60+.............................................................................. 6.9
GNP per capita (U.S. dollars, 1998) ................................ 3840

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CHINA

Population in 2006 (X 1000) ................................................ 1,313,973.7
Population in year 2000 (X 1000) ........................................ 1,276,301
Sex ratio (/100 females) .............................................................. 106.3
Per cent urban ............................................................................. 31.0
Age distribution (%) Crude death rate (/1000) ................................. 7.1
Ages 0-14 ..................................................................................... 26.3
Youth (15-24) ................................................................................ 18.1
Ages 60 + .....................................................................................  9.3
Percentage of women aged 15-49 ............................................... 56.6
Median age (years) ...................................................................... 27.6
Population density (/sq. km) ...................................................... 127
Annual population growth rate (%) ............................................... 0.90
Urban ........................................................................................... 3.45
Rural .......................................................................................... - 0.32
Crude birth rate (/1000) ............................................................... 16.2
Net migration rate (/1000) ........................................................... - 0.1
Total fertility rate (woman) ........................................................... 1.80
Life expectancy at birth (years)
Males .......................................................................................... 68.2
Females ...................................................................................... 71.7
Both sexes .................................................................................. 69.9
GNP per capita (U.S. dollars, 1994) ........................................... 530

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INDIA

Population in 2006 (X 1000) ...................................................... 1,095,352
Population in year 2000 (X 1000) ........................................... 1,022,021
Sex ratio (/100 females) ............................................................ 106.9
Per cent urban ........................................................................... 26.8
Age distribution (%) Crude death rate (/1000) ............................... 8.9
Ages 0-14 .................................................................................... 35.2
Youth (15-24) ............................................................................... 18.9
Ages 60+ ....................................................................................... 7.2
Percentage of women aged 15-49 ............................................... 50.1
Median age (years) ...................................................................... 22.8
Population density (/sq. km) ....................................................... 285
Annual population growth rate (%) ................................................ 1.8
Urban ............................................................................................. 3.0
Rural .............................................................................................. 1.3
Crude birth rate (/1000) ................................................................. 26.6
Net migration rate (/1000) ............................................................. - 0.1
Total fertility rate (woman) ............................................................. 3.42
Life expectancy at birth (years)
Males ............................................................................................ 62.6
Females ........................................................................................ 62.9
Both sexes .................................................................................... 62.8
GNP per capita (U.S. dollars, 1994) ............................................. 310

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INDONESIA

Population in 2006 (X 1000) ....................................................... 245,452.74
Annual population growth rate (%) ............................................... 1.22
Population in year 2015 (X 1000) .............................................. 250,383
Total fertility rate (/woman)........................................................... 2.26
Sex ratio (/100 females)............................................................... 99.6
Life expectancy at birth (years)
Age distribution (%) Males ........................................................... 65.3
Ages 0-14...................................................................................... 30.7
Females ...................................................................................... 69.3
Youth (15-24)................................................................................ 19.8
Both sexes................................................................................... 67.3
Ages 60+........................................................................................ 7.5
GNP per capita (U.S. dollars, 1998)............................................ 640

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PAKISTAN

Population in 1995 (X 1000) ........................................................ 165,803.6
Population in year 2000 (X 1000) ................................................ 156,483
Urban ............................................................................................ 35 %
Annual population growth rate ......................................................  2.77 %
Urban .............................................................................................. 4.25
Rural ............................................................................................... 1.85
Total fertility rate (/woman) ............................................................. 5.03
GNP per capita (U.S. dollars, 1997) .............................................. 500

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USA

Total Population - 2006 (X 1000) ...................................................  300,005.7
Projected Population (x 1000) for 2050 ................................ 397,100
Average pop. growth rate ....................................................... 0.9 %
Urban .................................................................................... 77.0 %
Urban growth rate ..................................................................  1.2 %
Total fertility rate .................................................................... 1.93 %
Percent Births ....................................................................... 99 %
GNI per capita (PPP$) ..................................................... 34,100
Under five mortality (Male / Female) ....................................... 8 / 8

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ISRAEL

Total Population - 2006 (X 1000) ......................................................... 6,352.12
Average pop. growth rate .......................................................... 1.18%

Source of Data: Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2000 Revision, Highlights.

GNP per capita is for the year 1998 from the UNDP, Human Development Report 2000, based on World Bank data (World Bank Atlas method).

CIA - The World Factbook.

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MALTHUS THEORY

Thomas R.  Malthus, a British economist of the century XIX (1766-1834), in his book "Trial on the Principle of the Populations", expressed his theory about populations, saying that while the populations make bigger logarithmically (geometrically), the natural resources for the survival of those populations grow in arithmetically. 

In his book, Malthus predicted the collapse of the human populations if they were not submitted voluntarily to the reduction of birth rates. It would be a Secundum Natura.

I do not know if Malthus was a scholar, or not. What I surely know is that he was not a biologist or an ecologist because he did never consider in his works the mechanisms that automatically are activated in the nature when a population grows to its extremes.

These ordinary mechanisms are sequentially put in action as soon as the populations break their limits. Some of these mechanisms are wars, increase of crime, hunger, emergent and re-emergent illnesses, etc.

The Populations collapses as a reflex action.  There is no need of Control of Natal Rates, neither of Family Planning.

Author: Biol. Nasif Nahle

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DID YOU KNOW THIS?
OVERPOPULATION          EFFECTS OF OVERPOPULATIONTRENDS

MALTHUS THEORY

Demographic Facts:BRAZILMEXICOCHINAINDIAINDONESIA

PAKISTANUSAISRAEL

Created: November 10, 2003Updated: October 21, 2006
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