CORRELATION BETWEEN SOLAR IRRADIANCE AND GLOBAL TEMPERATURE

By Nasif Nahle

Published on April 27, 2008.Updated: 20 December 2009.

(Additional editing of this English text by TS)

Cal. Year ADInt. of SI (W/m^2)    ∆ Temp. (K)   Amplitude SI (W/m^2)      Ann. Coeff. of Correlation

19851365.65-0.213831.15-1

19861365.65-0.147581.15-1

19871365.79 0.109831.30  1

19881366.09 0.107751.60-1

19891366.66-0.110512.16-1

19901366.56 0.072832.06 -1

19911366.45 0.116921.96 -1

19921366.31-0.192101.81  1

19931366.04-0.149081.54-1

19941365.81-0.012421.31-1

19951365.71  0.124250.12-1

19961365.62 0.02083 0.02 1

19971365.75 0.04617 0.05 1

19981366.11 0.51317 0.51 1

19991366.39 0.04050 0.04-1

20001366.67 0.03458 2.20-1

20011366.40 0.19925 1.90-1

20021366.37 0.31383 1.87-1

20031366.07 0.27183 1.57 1

20041365.91 0.19417 1.41 1

20051365.81 0.32825 1.31-1

20061365.72 0.27592 1.22 1

20071365.66 0.26967 1.16 1

2008     -9999.99-9.9999-9.99 1

We can understand from this table that negative correlations follow positive correlations from year to year. This is an indication of negative climate feedbacks to increases of Solar Irradiance, i.e. cloudiness, rainfall, albedo, atmospheric water vapor, aerosols, etc. Notice that, contrary to Lockwood’s assertion that solar irradiance has been decreasing, the satellite data (second column) clearly shows that solar irradiance increased from 1985 to 1989; it then decreased until 1996 and then increased again from 1997 to 2000. According to the satellite data, solar irradiance has once again decreased from 2001 to the present. Currently, solar irradiance is decreasing and changes of surface temperature are also decreasing.

The table above shows that solar activity has been fluctuating between minimums and maximums with a peculiar frequency since 1985. Peculiarly, in the last two years the correlation has been positive, that is, for a decrease in solar irradiance, there is a decrease in the fluctuation of temperature. Notice two important features: first, amplitudes have been positive since 1985; second, amplitudes higher than 1.5 W/m2 occurred from 1988 to 1993 and from 2000 to 2003. In 1998 the correlation was negative, while the amplitude of SI increased from 0.05 to 0.51 W/m^2. Thus it is evident that there is a delay in the response of Earth to any change of SI. I deduce that the positive fluctuation of temperature in 1998 is owed to the previous consecutive 10 years of high amplitudes of Intensity of Solar Irradiance. Please notice the absence of zero correlations since 1985. The negative coefficients of correlation correspond to negative atmospheric sensibility (negative feedbacks). Notice also that for the last eight years the amplitude of the Intensity of Solar Irradiance has been decreasing, while the coefficients of correlation have been positive. The latter means that the temperature response of the Earth is also decreasing.

I have included some graphs sso the effect can be easily visualized. You can corroborate that the assertions of Lockwood et al that fluctuations of temperature have been increasing while solar activity has been decreasing are not real.

Nasif Nahle

Biologist

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CLEAR CORRELATION BETWEEN SUN ACTIVITY AND GLOBAL TEMPERATURE

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CLICK ON THE GRAPH TO SEE AN ENLARGED IMAGE

The red line represents the annual amplitudes of Solar Irradiance (SI). The blue squares represent the correlation coefficients between the amplitudes of the Intensity of Solar Irradiance and the fluctuations of temperature from the standard temperature (273.15 K).

If we trace an imaginary line from the Maunder Minimum to the maximum amplitude in 1989, and another line from the Maunder Minimum to the minimum amplitude in 1982, we will find a regular frequency of long amplitudes. Coincidentally, the changes of global temperatures are larger when the amplitudes are short. This fact is evidenced in the next graph.

Take into account that the reconstruction of Dr. Judith Lean considered in plotting this graph is based only on sunspots number. This means that there could be many solar factors that can drive the Earth's climate other than the number of sunspots; for example, the amplitude of the fluctuations of the Intensity of SI.

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From this graph, we infer that changes of terrestrial tropospheric temperature follow the same trend as the intensity of total solar irradiance, i.e. that they have increased since 1699 AD. However, the changes of temperature are completely independent from the number of sunspots in 11 year cycles. This permits us to think that the negative correlations correspond to negative feedbacks on Earth that are activated by the higher amplitudes of Solar Irradiance; for example, cloudiness, evaporation, increases of albedo, etc. Greenhouse gases do not generate heat and so thermodynamically cannot produce important rises in tropospheric temperature, as I have demonstrated in my peer reviewed paper on Heat Stored. We can also systematically correlate other factors, like the increase in interstellar cosmic rays, which could increase cloud accretion during solar minimums.

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REFERENCES

Lean, J. 2004. Solar Irradiance Reconstruction. IGBP PAGES/World Data Center for Paleoclimatology Data Contribution Series # 2004-035. NOAA/NGDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder CO, USA.

Loehle, C. 2007. A 2000-Year Global Temperature Reconstruction Based on Non-treering Proxies. Energy & Environment 18(7-8): 1049-1058.

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CLICK ON THE GRAPH TO SEE AN ENLARGED IMAGE

The solid red line represents the corrected Lean's database on Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) (2004). The red dashed line represents the linear trend of TSI since 1610 A.D. Even after the correction made by Dr. Judith Lean to her original database (solid blue line), the linear trend of TSI is positive, i.e. the TSI is increasing. The graph shows very clearly that the trend continues being positive thus far.

The solid blue line represents the original Lean's database (2001) shows more evidently the positive trend and the absence of flat trends or long periods of minimum activity. The blue dashed line is the linear trend of the TSI on the original Lean's database, which considered multiple proxies other than the sunspots number.

The trend obtained from both databases is positive. This means that the Total Solar Irradiance is actually increasing since 1610 A.D. The total increase has been 3.2932 W/m^2.

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