CORRELATION BETWEEN SOLAR IRRADIANCE AND GLOBAL TEMPERATURE
Published on April 27, 2008.Updated: 20 December 2009.
(Additional editing of this English text by TS)
Cal. Year ADInt. of SI (W/m^2) ∆ Temp. (K) Amplitude SI (W/m^2) Ann. Coeff. of Correlation 19851365.65-0.213831.15-1 19861365.65-0.147581.15-1 19871365.79 0.109831.30 1 19881366.09 0.107751.60-1 19891366.66-0.110512.16-1 19901366.56 0.072832.06 -1 19911366.45 0.116921.96 -1 19921366.31-0.192101.81 1 19931366.04-0.149081.54-1 19941365.81-0.012421.31-1 19951365.71 0.124250.12-1 19961365.62 0.02083 0.02 1 19971365.75 0.04617 0.05 1 19981366.11 0.51317 0.51 1 19991366.39 0.04050 0.04-1 20001366.67 0.03458 2.20-1 20011366.40 0.19925 1.90-1 20021366.37 0.31383 1.87-1 20031366.07 0.27183 1.57 1 20041365.91 0.19417 1.41 1 20051365.81 0.32825 1.31-1 20061365.72 0.27592 1.22 1 20071365.66 0.26967 1.16 1 2008 -9999.99-9.9999-9.99 1
We can understand from this table that negative correlations follow positive correlations from year to year. This is an indication of negative climate feedbacks to increases of Solar Irradiance, i.e. cloudiness, rainfall, albedo, atmospheric water vapor, aerosols, etc. Notice that, contrary to Lockwood’s assertion that solar irradiance has been decreasing, the satellite data (second column) clearly shows that solar irradiance increased from 1985 to 1989; it then decreased until 1996 and then increased again from 1997 to 2000. According to the satellite data, solar irradiance has once again decreased from 2001 to the present. Currently, solar irradiance is decreasing and changes of surface temperature are also decreasing.
The table above shows that solar activity has been fluctuating between minimums and maximums with a peculiar frequency since 1985. Peculiarly, in the last two years the correlation has been positive, that is, for a decrease in solar irradiance, there is a decrease in the fluctuation of temperature. Notice two important features: first, amplitudes have been positive since 1985; second, amplitudes higher than 1.5 W/m2 occurred from 1988 to 1993 and from 2000 to 2003. In 1998 the correlation was negative, while the amplitude of SI increased from 0.05 to 0.51 W/m^2. Thus it is evident that there is a delay in the response of Earth to any change of SI. I deduce that the positive fluctuation of temperature in 1998 is owed to the previous consecutive 10 years of high amplitudes of Intensity of Solar Irradiance. Please notice the absence of zero correlations since 1985. The negative coefficients of correlation correspond to negative atmospheric sensibility (negative feedbacks). Notice also that for the last eight years the amplitude of the Intensity of Solar Irradiance has been decreasing, while the coefficients of correlation have been positive. The latter means that the temperature response of the Earth is also decreasing.
I have included some graphs sso the effect can be easily visualized. You can corroborate that the assertions of Lockwood et al that fluctuations of temperature have been increasing while solar activity has been decreasing are not real.